The Accidental Superpower: Ten Years On

I don't normally read geopolitical books, they can be somewhat boring. Trying to expand my horizons and I picked up this book in March of 2023 and his other book 'The End Of The World Is Just The Beginning' after listening to him on the Joe Rogan experience. Overall, it was a good book and I never thought how America's geography, especially east of the Mississippi, shaped its economy.Lot's of opinions in the book and at times, he sounded like a shill for the oil industry touting the benefits of fracking and how it was / is our ticket to energy independence and exit from Bretton Woods. Maybe, but as of this writing I think fracking has come to a slow halt due to the cost of it and the current administration in office.Overall, glad I read it, I learned more about the world outside of the US which can only help.

The book was fascinating and at the same time saddens one to realize that petrochemcials make the entire world go round, we're no where near ever getting off of them. I suppose the good news is that the US is already energy independent due to fracking and shale oil, yet no one outside the industry seems to know this fact. Kind of a big deal just this one fact alone isn't it?!

I began to suspect from the outset that author Peter Zeihan was not born and educated in the USA. He appears to be only superficially acquainted with U.S. history before World War II.However, that is NOT a significant weakness of the book because its crux is what has happened, and what Zeihan interpolates WILL happen, between 1945 --- when the USA emerged as a superpower --- and where we are headed into the mid 21st Century. On that period of current history and history extrapolated forward, Zeihan is expert, and that is why this book should be read.Zeihan's premise that the USA is an "accidental" superpower whose people just happened to stumble upon a continent of astoundingly favorable geography is dubious. Yes, the favorable geography was there, but the creation of the United States as a continent-spanning and then global superpower was no accident.Zeihan seems to believe that it was a cakewalk for American pioneers to secure possession of our country from coast to coast, and that not much in the way of man-made "artificial infrastructure" (i.e. canals, highways, and railroads) needed to be built:======One of the things that the Americans have traditionally not needed to spend that money on is artificial infrastructure.======Mr. Zeihan needs to call up an 1850's canal map, an 1860s through 1940s railroad map, or a modern road atlas with its 40,000 miles of Interstate highways. We've spent the modern-day equivalent of trillions of dollars on transportation infrastructures since our founding, and we're still at it, with the chorus of calls to commit money to high-speed passenger railroads. Transportation infrastructure is the LIFEBLOOD of America. The necessity of unifying the country with man-made transportation has always been an instinct of our national consciousness. Every great man-made transportation corridor we've built --- from the Erie Canal to the Panama Canal to the Transcontinental Railroad, to the Interstates, to the airports has been constructed out of necessity to unity the country economically and politically. Even the "natural" waterways like the Mississippi and Ohio and Potomac were made navigable by man-made operations of dredging and locking.It took a century of intensive canal, highway, and railroad construction to make it possible for Americans to consolidate sovereignty over the Continental USA. Astounding amounts of capital were poured into canals , railroads, and highways that linked the interior USA , separated by 200 miles of barren Appalachian Mountain "desert," to the East Coast ports.Indeed, the United States exists in its continental form because George Washington saw the need to link the interior of the continent to the coast before the trans-Appalachian settlers joined up with the British in Canada or the Spanish in Florida. He organized the Potomac Company as a joint venture between Virginia and Maryland to accomplish that. Other states joined the compact, and the final result was the Philadelphia Constitutional Convention. Then came the era of railroads, of highways, and now of air travel. The USA exists as a continent-spanning sovereignty BECAUSE of the enormous expenditure of capital allocated to the DELIBERATE construction of trans-continental infrastructures.Mr. Zeihan also appears to be only superficially acquainted with Canadian history. His conception of Canada as a fragmented quasi-nation that is probably destined to be absorbed into the USA has a 1960-ish or 1970-ish retro feel to it. These issues of Quebec seceding and Alberta becoming the "51st State" were front-page stories on foreign policy magazines 50 years ago. Those scenarios never panned out because Canada is a deeper-rooted nation than it often appears, even to Canadians. Mr. Zeihan (who Internet research reveals to be Australian-born)would not be expected to understand the history of Canada or the USA the way a person who has lived their entire lives in either country would understand it.However, the meaningful aspect of the book is how Mr. Zeihan analyzes the world from 1945 going forward and then extrapolates how the mid-21st Century (2030-2080) will look. That last part, which reaches its climax in the Epilogue, is eye-opening.It is a contrarian-positive view of the USA. Instead of declining into a dystopian post-Superpower anarchy, as many today feel is our destiny, Mr. Zeihan makes the case that the USA's role as the world's ONLY Superpower will be ENHANCED. And, yes, he does explain why our geography is a big part of that. But the character of our people, and especially the vision of our leaders to bridge the gaps in our continental geography in order to make us a unified nation, are the largest part of the equation.Our geography IS accidental. Our status as the world's only Superpower is DELIBERATE. But that aside, the book has given me a clear vision of what the USA and the rest of the world is probably going to look like in 2030-2080. We make better decisions in the present if we have a good intuition of what the future will bring. I think Mr. Zeihan has foreseen IN SPECIFIC DETAILS, NOT JUST GENERALITIES, the mid-century future of the USA and the world and has described it lucidly in this book.===btw. this book was released barely more than six WEEKS ago and its main theme of decline of American adversaries in the oil-producing countries of Russia, Venezuela, Iran, etc. is ALREADY happening. Oil prices plunged 50% in the last six weeks and knocked the stuffing out of these American adversaries, just as Peter Zeihan predicted would happen around mid century. This happened because our oil production nearly DOUBLED in the last two years due to fracking. There are also incidental signs that China's economy has reached the limit of its growth curve, as its recent economic growth rate is the slowest since the 1990's. America is once again viewed as the preeminent economic power on the planet. I'd say author Zeihan "hit it out of the park" in predicting this one!

Love this book!

Worth the read.

I just finished reading The Accidental Super Power, The Next Generation of American Preeminence and The Coming Global Disorder, by Peter Zeihan. One thing I think can be agreed upon - he’s clearly brilliant - and I think his analysis of the internal workings of the world’s nations is spot on. From the history, to the demographics, to the geography and the paradigms they create, his work explains so much of why nations leaders are doing what they’re doing, especially the Chinese and the Russians. Many of these views are views I’ve expressed in the past but never with the depth and expanse of information he’s put together. I’ve know about Bretton Woods for years, and I thought I knew a lot about Bretton Woods. I was wrong! He’s added dimensions to this I never grasped or organized it in the way as has this author.Since I’ve been reading this book I’ve asked everyone if they ever heard of Bretton Woods, and invariable almost no one has, and those that have heard of it had no idea what it was all about. This is a book that needs to be read by anyone with an interest in history, policy, current events and long range thinking.I agree with his analysis that Bretton Woods will end soon and a gradual international contraction by America I believe is beyond doubt. But the reader should keep some things in mind.First, prediction is very difficult – especially about the future! As he talks about the end of the Bretton Woods era you will see there’s understandable difficulty in defining when and to what degree it will occur.Secondly, there is little discussion on the impact of Islamist immigrants will make on countries like Russia and all the European countries that are breeding themselves out of existence. Russia is losing ethnic Russians at such a startling rate Russia’s future existence as we know it is in doubt. What happens when or if Islamists outnumber the ethnic Europeans or their numbers become so large civil war erupts all over Europe?Third, just as nature abhors a vacuum, so do does “power”. If America withdraws to the extent he’s predicting these countries will demand someone step in to save them. That will be the United Nations. He ignores that as a potential. He’s far too smart not to see that potential, especially since there are so many efforts by so many, especially in the E.U., to expand the U.N.’s power and reach, as is outlined in any number of U.N. treaty initiatives such as Agenda 21 and the Law of the Sea Treaty, which would give it income of its own. Therefore I have to conclude he deliberately left that out. And I have to ask – why?If all occurs as he’s predicting – and I think much of it will – he has to see the U.N. as a much bigger player in the future. He outlines how the Bretton Woods era will end, but the goal has been and, will still be, to prevent the very conflicts and wars he discusses and to keep the sea lanes open. So will the concept of Bretton Woods end or will it merely be transferred to the UN? Will the UN be the power broker nations will want in the enforcement arena, including giving them taxing power, their own military, and use of deep sea naval power via the right to control American, British and Japanese naval forces? I think that’s exactly what’s going to happen. I also think “every “country - including the U.S. - will buy into that. As one author pointed out - there's a difference between a global government and global governance.That much control exercised by the most corrupt incompetent organization the world has ever known is a scary thought, but his long range rosy picture of America’s economic future has that one big cloud over it. If the U.N. gets the authority I’m describing they will find ways to confiscate all the economic renewal generated by America and give it to the rest of the world. He has to see that potential, and yet he ignored it. I have to wonder why?Even with all the caveats I’ve listed I really think this book is foundationally important to mold everyone’s thinking and views. This is a must read!

I bought this after seeing one of the author's slick presentations on youtube.A bit like Jared Diamond, Zeihan thinks geography determines everything.The early part of the book is a quick summary of world history where the author selects examples to prove his ideas, posits cause and effect without evidence and ignores obvious examples which don't support his ideas. It's simplistic and unconvincing.Later parts of the book are better, they look at demographics, natural resources and other data points to describe the state of the world and make predictions. Very smooth and lots of interesting ideas but far too sure of himself. Reading this several years later, the benefit of hindsight shows the author right in some points, wrong in others.The overall verdict in one word is unconvincing. Also doesn't help that a book like this has a very limited shelf life.Zeihan is probably worth listening to, you just need to be a bit sceptical.

Peter Zeihan's understanding of history in the first chapters is very poor. Almost every page has a glaring error, which makes doubtful his assertions in the rest of the book. For example, when explaining European history, he fails to understand Christian belief and its key role in culture, society and development. Zeihan has a tendency to ascribe every outcome to geographical determinism - but why did certain societies use that geography at certain times and in certain ways? It was Christian belief that really built cultures capable of thinking and acting with integrity and inspiration, and in particular, Protestant culture in Northern Europe which went back to Biblical faith and emphasised an individual's relationship to God: the result was the Protestant work ethic, art, literature, and most inventions we rely on today. Of course, sinful humans did not always use that culture in good ways, but it was the transforming foundation of Christianity that let Britain use its deepwater ports - having not done so for thousands of years; it was the Christian foundation which let the American navy and military behave with a moral basis against Communism. So, geopolitics is important, but its the 'why' and 'when' and 'how' we use that geography (or don't) that depends on human minds and souls.Zeihan's book needs to be read in this context, with awareness of his lack of deeper understanding. It is interesting to consider what will happen as globalisation ends, but to be really insightful we need to see much more than geopolitics. America will only use its resources well if it has a Christian basis; demography is important, but is influenced by how we think and what we believe; the success of education, technological advances, politics, etc., are all dependent on living lives that honour God. This is history's lesson.

I love the depth and breadth of the author’s knowledge. He pulls on a deep but in my view anyway somewhat unique view of history, geography, demographics and global security/economics to forge a very believable thesis. That thesis is simple but -as a non American -frightening. Worth a read if you can cope with a few comforting illusions being stripped away.

Informative and very good sense of humour through out good book

Very interesting. Good on history and what may be to come.